The Business Impact of Last Night's NBA Draft Lottery
Wed, 2007-05-23 19:07 — Berger
As most of you know, Sports Business Radio is based in Portland, Oregon and the city and its people are still abuzz over last night's stunning turn of events with the Trail Blazers winning the NBA lottery, despite the fact that they only had a 5.3% chance of landing the top pick. Let's talk about some of the ramifications of last night's events. There are many.
Impact on the NBA:
The league pretty much put the kibash on any of you who are conspiracy theorists who have claimed the NBA lottery is "rigged". If that was the case, there's no way that Portland and Seattle would have finished 1-2 in last night's lottery. Is it a good thing for the league that the NBA's two Pacific Northwest teams won the lottery? Yes and no.
Yes, because Portland and Seattle are two of the league's long-time franchises with nearly 4 decades each of loyal fan support. The fans in each city are as rabid as any fans in the U.S. when it comes to supporting a winner. Its no secret that both franchises have fallen on hard times over the past several years and Oden and Durant will immediately make these two franchises relevant again. As the old saying goes, "You're only as strong as your weakest links," and Portland and Seattle regain a ton of health - on and off the court by landing these prized players. In Seattle's case, this pick may actually save basketball in the Emerald City. That's a scenario that very few people were considering 24 hours ago.
No, because Portland and Seattle are small market franchises. Because their home games don't start until after 10pm on the east coast, Oden and Durant won't have nearly the exposure they'd enjoy if they played on the east coast. If Boston, Chicago or Phildelphia had landed one of the top two picks, you could argue that Oden and Durant would receive considerably more exposure than they'll receive on the west coast.
There are also people like Grizzles President of Basketball Operations Jerry West who are now openly critical of the NBA Draft lottery process, saying that the process needs to be re-worked. Personally, I don't think teams should be given incentive to lose games and that's exactly what guys like West and Danny Ainge were doing in hopes of landing one of the first two picks via the current lottery format. The more games you lose, the more ping pong balls you get. But as we saw last night, more ping pong balls don't always equate to landing a top pick. I'm not opposed to tweaking the lottery process (I'll save those thoughts for another time), but for West to criticize the process today sounds like sour grapes.
On another note, I can't wait to see the TV ratings for the NBA Draft lottery last night. I'll bet you they are higher or even with the ratings from last night's snoozer between Utah and San Antonio. The lottery was much more compelling than the Western Conference Finals.....not sure that's such a good thing for the league, but that's they way it is for now.
PORTLAND and SEATTLE:
These picks are just what the doctor ordered for the Trail Blazers and Sonics.
TRAIL BLAZERS:
Can we once and for all bury the "Jail Blazers"? This pick will finally turn the page on that era of controversy and dysfunction. With core players like Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez already on board, the Trail Blazers addition of Oden or Durant will establish the team as one of the elite NBA franchises once again. What does that mean? It means millions of dollars more in ticket sales and sponsorships for the team. It means appearances on national TV. It means you'll see fans in Portland and nationwide sporting Blazers merchandise again. It means with added revenues coming in, the team will be able to go after missing pieces in the free agent market again and those free agents will look at Portland as an enticing option.
SUPERSONICS:
Like I said above, let's face it. 24 hours ago, the prospect of the Sonics playing NBA basketball in Seattle beyond next season was looking as cloudy as the Seattle sky on a winter day. Clay Bennett and his group have not been able to get the support they've requested for a new arena in Washington and he's been very pessimistic about the team's chances of remaining in the Pacific Northwest, where they've resided for the past 40 years. Now, with Oden or Durant on the way, everything looks a little more optimistic for the franchise.
Will Oden or Durant be able to save the Sonics? I still think the team is on the move, but Clay Bennett now has an awfully attractive carrot to bargain with. Would Washington fans have been upset if the team moved after they drafted Spencer Hawes? No. But will those same fans be upset if Oden or Durant come and go after one season? Absolutely. Will those upset fans rally around the Sonics and pitch in to pay for a new arena and keep the team in Washington? We'll soon see. Regardless, by landing the #2 pick, Clay Bennett has options in Washington and in other markets that he didn't have 24 hours ago. I'd also wager that the franchise value of the Sonics (and Trail Blazers) just increased by at least $10M - just in the past 24 hours.
Remember what I wrote yesterday. When the Cavs drafted LeBron James in 2003, the team was valued at $260M. Today the team is valued at $380M. The Cavs also sold an additional 7,000 season tickets after they drafted James - that amounts to an additional $12M in revenue. My point? Oden and Durant will mean BIG bucks for the Trail Blazers and Sonics.
ODEN and DURANT:
I watched interviews with both Oden and Durant last night and let's just say that neither player was doing cartwheels about the fact that they'll most likely be starting their NBA careers in the Pacific Northwest. Both were polite and basically said, "I'll play wherever I'm drafted." For reasons I mentioned above, playing in the Pacific Northwest won't exactly help either player when it comes to securing big time, national endorsement deals. Playing on the west coast, in small markets, will turn off some companies who were on the fence about signing Oden or Durant to endorsement deals. Would the duo have fared better in Boston, Philly or Chicago? Its likely, but not a slam dunk. Last time I checked, Kobe Bryant plays on the west coast and he still attracts plenty of attention - from the media and now from sponsors again. My point being that if you are a special player who exudes personality, the media and corporate America will find you no matter where you are playing.
Oden will be a marketable player, but Durant, because of his personality and multi-dimentional game, will be more marketable as I've stated previously.
Another interesting sidenote - If Durant winds up in Seattle, he'll be in the same city as his Seattle-based agent Aaron Goodwin. Even if Durant is in Portland, he still won't be far from Goodwin. Maybe that ends up working to Durant's advantage over the long run.
Portland Trail Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard will join me on this weekend's edition of SBR to discuss the impact of owning the #1 pick in June. What a last year Kevin has had. He makes 6 trades last June that ultimately net him LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. He then gets his shot at being an NBA GM and he's now in a position to really put the Trail Blazers back amongst the elite NBA franchises. Something tells me that 10 years from now, we'll all look back at what Pritchard is doing now as the architect of this team and compare him to the great GM's of the last 20 years. I like his style and I think he's the perfect person to build this team. I look forward to speaking with him on Sports Business Radio this weekend.

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Jerry West
The only thing is that he was complaining about the Draft process long before last nights results. Check his last podcast with Chad Ford at least a month before the draft.
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