Steve Pyeatt, Co-Founder of Save Our Sonics joined me on Sports Business Radio this past weekend and raised some valid points as to why Sonics fans should remain optimistic that their team will remain in the city its called home since 1967. I'm not as optimistic though and think the Sonics' days in Seattle are numbered.

My 5 Reasons for why the Sonics aren't long for the Emerald City:

1.) Seattle Initiative 91 - Clay Bennett won't find financial support from Seattle taxpayers. Citizens are tapped out after helping pay for Safeco Field (home of MLB's Mariners) and Qwest Field (home of the NFL's Seahawks) and have sworn to make it nearly impossible to publicly finance a sports facility. The even passed Seattle Initiative 91 which prohibits subsidies to professional sports teams in Seattle. This initiative requires that the City of Seattle must receive at or above fair value in return for leasing property or providing goods and services to for-profit professional sports organizations. Fair value is defined as no less than the rate of return on a US Treasury Bond of thirty years duration. Sports venues rarely offer that kind of return, so this scenario is highly unlikely.

2.) Sonics Ownership Group has alienated city and state officials as well as Seattle fans - If you're looking for a roadmap detailing the fastest way to alienate local officials after arriving in town as the new ownership group of a pro sports franchise, look no further than Clay Bennett's group. From making unreasonable demands for funding a new arena to having one of your minority owners do an interview stating that your group really had no intention of ever getting a deal done in the market where you purchased your franchise, this group has left a path of burned bridges nearly everywhere. Its hard to imagine a scenario where the people in Seattle support anything proposed by Clay Bennett's group at this point, unless Bennett and company announce they'll pay the entire tab on a new facility. There's a lot of animosity here.

When Clay Bennett, owner of the Seattle Sonics recently declared that he's filing an application to relocate the team to Oklahoma City, he basically gave the middle finger to the fans in Seattle. Fan support for the team will wane as this season progresses and people will become more and more apathetic. With both the Mariners and the Seahawks situations, there was an enormous groundswell of support from the fans and that support was vital to keeping those teams in Seattle. For reasons pointed out above, the fan support for the Sonics doesn't exist outside of a few grassroots organizations like Save Our Sonics.

3.) Bennett and his group were asking for $300M of the $500M needed for a new arena from the public - Before he sold the club former Sonics owner Howard Schultz was only asking for a measley $200M and he was given a resounding "NO" from local officials and taxpayers. Its the main reason he sold the Sonics to Bennett's group. If Schultz, better known as "Mr. Starbucks" and a Seattle resident couldn't strike a deal with local officials, why should we think Bennett will be able to? And he's asking for $100M more than Schultz was.

4.) Clay Bennett and his fellow owners (all from Oklahoma City) are hellbent on moving the team to Oklahoma City - Every single member of the current Sonics ownership group is from Oklahoma City. Not one member of the group is from the Pacific Northwest. Each of the owners lives and conducts business in Oklahoma City and wants to be hailed as a "hometown hero" for bringing NBA basketball to the city permanently. This ownership group has not yet sneezed at the proposition of having to pay $100M - $150M to relocate the Sonics to Oklahoma City (after paying $350M to buy the team). They don't seem to care how much money they lose on this venture. As long as they can sit back in their courtside seats and prop up their cowboy boots, nothing else really matters. And so far, they've turned down any overtures from Pacific NW based ownership groups who would like to keep the team in the region.

5.) NBA Commissioner David Stern and Clay Bennett are BFF (Best Friends Forever) - The two have been tight since Bennett's days as minority owner of the San Antonio Spurs in the 1990's. Stern spoke out last week condemning the people of Seattle for not working harder to get a deal done with Bennett to keep the Sonics in Seattle. Stern even presented Bennett at last week's Oklahoma Hall of Fame inductions. While Stern won't be the final say when it comes to approving the Sonics relocation to Oklahoma City (the Board of Governors will), he could certainly push for a deal to keep the Sonics in Seattle if he wanted to. Right now, it looks as though Stern's friendship with Bennett is taking a higher priority than Stern seeing Seattle as a valuable market for his league (Seattle is the gateway to the Pacific Rim and its no secret the NBA is focusing a ton of energy on growing their brand in China and Japan). At the end of the day, Stern works for the NBA owners. He's going to bat for Bennett and trying to give him as much leverage as possible. The problem is, I don't think there's any turning back for Bennett. He's blacklisted in Seattle and he's got no choice but to move to another city.

The city of Seattle may win its battle with Bennett on the current Key Arena lease (the city is arguing a "performance clause" will keep Bennett in Seattle through the 2009-10 season), but at some point, Bennett will move this team. And the clock is ticking for Bennett because New Orleans Hornets owner George Shinn also wants to get to Oklahoma City. His Hornets played there for the past season and a half and did much better there financially than they will do in New Orleans. I'm betting Shinn applies to relocate his team at the end of this season after incurring huge financial losses from playing to a half empty arena every night.

Its a race that will surely be worth watching.