I said it at the start of the season right here on this blog and I've been saying it on Sports Business Radio for the past two years. NBA basketball will not work in New Orleans over the long haul. All you need to know is that the Hornets, led by Chris Paul, have one of the best records in the NBA this season, but they have the worst home attendance numbers of any NBA team. New Orleans's population is only about 300,000, or about 65 percent of its pre-Hurricane Katrina size. And most of those people are concerned with rebuilding their lives and homes and not plunking down money for entertainment options like season tickets to NBA games.

Now comes word that the state of Lousiana and the Hornets have signed an amended lease. The new lease includes an option for the team and owner George Shinn to terminate the agreement after the 2008-09 season if the Hornets fail to draw an average attendance of 14,735 for the final five months of this season and next season. So far this season, the Hornets are averaging a league worst 11,871 for their home games.

Also under the new lease agreement, the state of Louisiana has been relieved of its obligation to construct a new practice facility for the team...........something that had been a huge issue for Hornets George Shinn previously.

I don't know about you, but this sounds like the groundwork has now been laid for a Hornets move from New Orleans.

Yes, moving the Hornets would be costly for Shinn, who would would be on the line for up to $100 million by some estimates. But the Hornets, who have a current estimated value of $272M according to FORBES, could be purchased and then moved to a city like Kansas City (who has a brand spanking new arena they need to find an anchor tennant for), Anaheim, San Jose or even Las Vegas and the person or group purchasing the team would most likely pay a premium to Shinn because the young team would be portable.

There are several eager groups out there who want NBA teams and the biggest challenge is getting a team out of its current lease agreement so the team can be moved to one of the aforementioned cities. If the Hornets can get out of their lease after the 2008-09 season because the attendance numbers fail to meet the requirements of the new lease, you can bet there will be buyers knocking on George Shinn's door offering to buy the team and make him whole.

I'll say it again. Its honorable that the NBA and George Shinn are making every effort to make pro basketball work in New Orleans. But with 41 home dates to sell and the attendance numbers we're seeing so far this season, it just doesn't pencil out. Shinn is going to lose his shirt if the team continues to play in New Orleans. Unless the NBA subsidizes his losses (very unlikely), I think the Hornets' days in New Orleans are numbered.